“We can’t live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.”
– Daniel Kahneman, winner of the 2002 Nobel economics prize for his work on behavioral finance
The Through Line: Equity markets have largely been signaling sunny skies ahead – even though recent economic data hint clouds may be gathering. It’s a delicate dance between macro news that has begun to track softer than projected and micro news, which is more energetic. History tells us a bit of murkiness is not unusual while consumers, businesses and policymakers adjust to a markedly altered policy landscape. We expect more clarity as the year draws to a close and market focus turns to enhanced capital spending and a Federal Reserve that has resumed cutting interest rates.
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