The U.S. has been introducing tariffs to support U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda, which also involves securing the country’s borders and rebuilding domestic production capacity. Meanwhile, U.S. trading partners, such as Canada and Europe, have been forced to adapt to a new economic normal.
“There’s no question that it’s difficult for Canadians to navigate through some of the challenges, but I have to say that I am incredibly confident that at the end of the day, we’ll still be hanging out with our old best friend [the U.S.] and deepening the relationship with the EU and, perhaps, in some other places around the world,” said Brian Tobin, Vice Chair, BMO Financial Group, during a panel discussion at the 31st Conférence de Montréal.
“I’m not saying we’ll come to the same resolution [like the last time Trump was President], but I think we’ll come to a resolution that we can all live with,” added Tobin, the former Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, and former Member of Parliament.
Following the G7 gathering in Alberta, signs emerged that leaders were working toward a resolution.
Geopolitical reset
John Willding, Partner, Stinson LLP, in the U.S. described the relationship between the U.S. and Canada as a “reset,” particularly with the newly elected Canadian Prime Minister. “The last thing in the world we’re thinking about is some kind of negative relationship with Canada. We’re simply rebalancing our trade agreements to align with what we believe the United States brings to the table, the role that we play and security that we provide to the hemisphere,” he said.
Finding a way to improve relations between nations should be a top priority, said a number of panelists. Bernard Spitz, President, BSC, noted the consequences and negative fallout of weakening partnerships start multiplying the longer it takes for countries to find a resolution. “In the end, it’s about finding the balance,” he said. “What is the best way to find a solution that will be a win-win? In the new era that we are living in, there is a capacity for us to find that way.”
Spitz’s comments came the same day the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, nearly half a percentage point lower from the start of the year – citing “heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty.”
In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the global lender said growth will expand at its slowest pace since 2008. The World Bank lowered its forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies, including the U.S., China, Europe and six emerging market regions. It said, however, that a global recession is not expected.
“If forecasts for the next two years materialize, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s,” the report stated.
Renewables: the importance of stability
The U.S. government has also been revisiting its renewable energy-related policies. To address that shifting dynamic, the Honorable Scott Brison, Vice Chair, BMO Wealth Management, sat down with Patrick Decostre, President and CEO, Boralex, during another session at the conference, to discuss the evolving complexities that renewable energy companies could face.
Decostre conceded that the change in America’s willingness to help renewable energy providers grow could impact the broader industry for years to come. “It’s a disruption when you have a big change like this, because the cost of the project will not go down,” he said.
Brison also noted, Carney has “quite a breadth and depth of understanding of sustainable finance,” and he has an ambition for Canada to become “an energy superpower in conventional and clean energy,” he said.
Brison asked Decoste what his advice to Carney would be regarding public policy and Canada’s own renewable tax credits.
“My first advice is to not create disruptions. If you want to build Canada as a superpower in energy, it means you need lots of investments,” Decostre said, adding that investments include supporting renewable power generation, which is what his company focuses on.
